Direktlänk till inlägg 21 januari 2011

Plats för brott kan förutses

Av Oliver Eriksson - 21 januari 2011 14:55

Det låter kanske som science fiction. Men för kalenderbitaren Berth Simonsson och hans kollega Ola Hornemark vid Skånepolisen har det varit en verklighet i tre år.

Kriminella är i vissa avseenden lika förutsägbara som vädret. Och nu hoppas Simonsson och Hornemark kunna bygga upp ett digitalt verktyg som kan ge en kriminell prognos för Skåne.

Visionen är högt ställd: verktyget ska i god tid säga ifrån när ett brott ska äga rum, vad som ska hända och i vilket område. Då borde det vara enkelt för polisen att antingen avvärja händelsen eller gripa förövaren.

– Helst ska man på ledningscentralen kunna se var det kommer att ske ett brott inom den närmaste timmen. Då kan man låta bli att kommendera bort patruller därifrån eller kanske till och med se till att skicka dit fler, säger Berth Simonsson.

För att konstruera verktyget måste polisen analysera en lång rad paramet­rar (se faktarutan). Polisen kommer att koncentrera sig på brott som begås utomhus – de har visat sig vara mest förutsägbara.

– När flera faktorer sammanträffar uppstår ett brott i teorin, säger Simonsson.

Han hoppas kunna samarbeta med akademiker på Malmö högskola för att få fram vilka parametrar som är relevanta för just Skåne. Det avancerade dataprogram som kan användas för att räkna fram prognoserna finns redan.

– Vad vi saknar är resurser, fortsätter Simonsson. Det är svårt att säga vad det skulle kosta, vi har ju bara börjat diskutera denna fråga, men två miljoner kanske? Det är en struntsumma i sammanhanget.

Han är övertygad om att en satsning på dataprogramet både skulle öka tryggheten i samhället och minska brottsligheten.

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